CONSULTANT OF COASTAL HAZARDS & RISK ASSESSMENT FOR RAN API REVIEW
Climate change is a change in climate variables that can be identified by several methods and lasts for a long time, in decades or more. Climate change can occur because it is caused by two factors, namely internal and external factors. Climate change due to internal factors is an internal change in the climate system that happened naturally. This means that climate change is a phenomenon that occurs on earth and is not an implication of the existing action. While climate change due to external factors is a climate change caused by various human activities that increase the concentration of greenhouse gases, especially the CO2 gas. In the fifth assessment report (AR-5), the IPCC underlines the role of humans as a major cause of changes in environmental systems, including climate. Experts incorporated in Working Group 1 (WG 1) with 95-100% confidence level believe that climate change occurring since the 1950s is dominated by human activity¹. The experts considered new evidence of climate change based on many independent scientific analyzes of climate system observations, paleo climatic archives, theoretical studies of climate processes and simulations using climate models. It is built on the contributions of WG1 in the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) and incorporates findings from new research. As a component of the fifth assessment cycle, the IPCC Special Report on managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to improve climate change adaptation is an important basis for information on climate change and extreme climate.
To assess the impact and preparation of future climate change adaptation efforts, the assessment should be based on a global climate projection which is then downscaling on a regional scale with models and scenarios. Climate projection results are highly dependent on scenarios of increasing GHG concentrations in the atmosphere based on assumptions of the development of global socio-economic conditions and the key technologies that support them. In AR4-IPCC, the scenarios used are based on the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES). There are four climate projection on AR-4: projected increase of temperature, projection of rainfall change, projection of sea surface temperature rise and sea level rise, and projection of weather and extreme climate events. AR-5 uses climate modeling using the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario, where the worst model is shown by RCP 8.5. The RCP 8.5 scenario describes the radioactive forcing that occurs reach 8,5 Watt/m2. Radiactive Forcing is defined as the difference between the radiant energy received by the earth and the reflected back outward. The larger the radiactive forcing, the greater the energy that enters the earth so that the system heats up, whereas the smaller the radiactive forcing, the more energy that comes out, thereby cooling the earth. The relationship between CO2 concentration and radiactive forcing is logarithmic. Meaning, small changes in CO2 concentration will increase radiactive forcing so that more energy will come in, or the system can easily become hotter. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8,5 is an emission scenario used in the fifth IPCC report, replacing the scenario made in the previous IPCC report, SRES. RCP is a more concentrated scenario of emissions and not directly based on the socio-economic picture.
The ICCSR document (Indonesia Climate Change Sectoral Roadmap) issued in 2010 previously implemented AR-4 with the use of scenarios based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The AR4-IPCC models assume that the temperature rise is caused predominantly by the effects of GHGs dispersed in the atmosphere evenly. Thus, the projected average increase in temperatures across Indonesia due to GHGs up to the period 2020-2050 is about 0.8-1 ° C relative to the last climatic period in the 20th century (Bappenas, 2010c). The output of AR4-IPCC models generally shows more varied patterns of rainfall change in Indonesia, both temporally and spatially. Although the results of the analysis of historical data and extrapolation up to the year 2020 show a significant trend of changes in rainfall, the projection analysis based on the output of seven GCM on average does not show significant changes for the period 2020-2050 (Bappenas, 2010c). Predicted Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) show an average rise of 1-1.2 ° C in 2050 relative to SST in 2000 (Bappenas, 2010b). This upward trend is still within the range of global temperature rise so it is quite consistent with the analysis of AR4-IPCC models for surface temperatures. Nevertheless, as explained before, the effect of global climate variability on SST variation in Indonesian waters is significant. Weather events and extreme climates (extreme events) projections are actually very important for the preparation of an adaptation plan. However, analysis of the extreme events projection is not easy to do because it requires more detailed data and time consuming. Therefore, it can be understood that a comprehensive study related to extreme events in the territory of Indonesia is still very limited.
As IPCC AR-5 reported on Ch 18 there is stronger evidence for substantial and wide-ranging impacts of climate change. The system include the cryosphere, coastal systems and ecosystems on land and in the ocean. For example, impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle, and notably the availability of freshwater resources, it affecting runoff and water resources downstream. Climate change is the main driver of permafrost warming and thawing in both high-latitude and high-elevation mountain regions. Hydrological systems have changed in many regions because of changing precipitation or melting cryosphere, affecting water resources, water quality, and sediment transport. Substantial new evidence also has been collected on sensitivities of human systems to climate change, are often dominated by effects of changing social and economic factors.
For Indonesia context in terms of RAN API review, identification of climate change hazards is based on atmospheric, model and oceanic model which for four national sectors priority. The sectors also discussed in IPCC AR-5 global and regional assessment. In the previous ICCSR study in 2010, hazards model identification was performed on certain physical parameters and not much in accordance with the needs of sector development at the time, and there was no communication among experts, particularly on climate model development with the need of climate parameters related to hazard and risk assessments. Which mean the hazard modeler could be utilized many parameters from climate modeler. As the RAN API review plan, until the end of 2017 it is targeted completion of this activities in 4 (four) adaptation priority sectors. The results of this study expected aligned with the climate projection. In 2018, the formulation of strategies and policies will begin as input to the RPJMN 2020-2024.
B. Purpose and Objectives
The main purpose in recruiting expert / consultant for coastal hazards is to implement one of the stages of RAN API review activity, which will be the material in RAN API preparation and background study RPJMN 2020-2024. The main objective to be achieved through the whole series of activities is the preparation of national climate hazard and impact report which will be used as basic information for strategy and policy development on each sector.
C. Job Descriptions
Details of national climate projection work for RAN API review are as follows:
1. Stocktaking Data, Information, and Knowledge
· Understanding the concept of climate hazard and risk related to coastal sector
· Conduct a literature review of examples of good practice in the use of assessment model of hazard, risk and impact assessment.
2. Conducting technical activities related to the topics of the assessment for the advisory include:
· Define methods on hazards, risk and impacts analysis and assessment (observational data, model testing with, running and calibrating baseline model, running projections model, hazard analysis, risk analysis and impact analysis)
· Supervise data preparation for the assessment
· Historical risk and impact assessment of the coastal hazards
· Projected risk and impact assessment of the coastal hazards
· Synthesizing results of the assessments
· Active in technical meetings on discussion of methods, scope, and other matters related to hazard, risk and impact assessment.
3. Prepare reports and policy briefs related to the assessment.
4. Collaborate with RAN API Secretariat (Bappenas) with utilization of existing resources, such as IRBI, SIDIK, etc.
D. Competence of Climate Projection Preparation Experts
· Latest education S-3 with background Oceanography, Marine/Fisheries, Disaster Risk Reduction, and others with proven experience and knowledge possessed.
· At least 10 years of climate-related experience.
· Having knowledge and scientific skills in terms of climate risk modeling and familiar with the model or scenario issued by IPCC and climate change institute in Indonesia.
Expert/ Consultant of coastal hazard will report the work results to members of the National Steering Committee for climate projection through coordination with the Secretariat of RAN API and Bappenas. Payment will be arranged in two phases; Phase 1 is after the user received the progress report output 1-4, and Phase 2 will be after final report.
F. Schedule of Activities Implementation
Activity carried out in October-December 2017 (20 working days, extension may be deemed necessary) by referring to the RAN API Review work plan.
Interested applicants are invited to send their CV to APIK_Recruitment@DAI.com. Please send applications no later than 14 October 2017. Applicants are instructed to write “Coastal Hazards and Risk Assessment Consultant – NAME” as the Subject line of their email. We regret that we are unable to acknowledge receipt of all applications and only shortlisted candidates will be notified.
 The IPCC has three working groups (WGs) where each has a different task. One of the main activities of the IPCC is to prepare a comprehensive Assessment Reports on the scientific, technical and socio-economic basis of climate change, its causes, potential impacts and strategies to address them. The IPCC also produces a special report which is an assessment of a particular issue and a Methodology Report that provides practical guidance for the preparation of greenhouse gas calculations. The IPCC report on the scientific facts of climate change can be used by various parties to provide knowledge and understanding to the wider community about climate change, as well as to assist policy makers in making related decisions and taking climate change into consideration.